Bit hard to work out how he gives Ohio to Kerry on the basis of a Bush +2 result "trending Kerry". Since this was carried out yesterday and today it presumably means that Kerry's numbers in Ohio were much stronger today than yesterday (and remember Ohio was +6 Bush based on the Sat-Sun-Mon results, so the +2 is already a big improvement).
All in all, it looks a lot closer than the headline EV number might suggest (though encouraging, of course).
Meanwhile in Iowa they have Kerry leading +28% among the 30% who voted early. Not a bad start.
http://olympics.reuters.com/newsArticle.jhtml?type=electionsNews&storyID=6681154
The state-by-state results: In Colorado, Bush led 49-47 percent; Florida, tied at 48 percent; Iowa, Kerry 50-45 percent; Michigan, Kerry 52-46 percent; Minnesota, Kerry 51-45 percent; New Mexico, Kerry 51-48 percent; Nevada, Bush 50-45 percent; Ohio, Bush 49-43 percent; Pennsylvania, Kerry 50-46; and Wisconsin, Kerry 51-45 percent.
Not much changed from yesterday, except Kerry is now ahead in New Mexico, Bush increases his lead in Ohio, Florida now tied, Minnesota looking safer for Kerry.
If this is anything like accurate it looks like it could all come down to Florida again.
http://www.foxnews.com/projects/pdf/110104_poll2.pdf
Okay, so they have him down in Ohio, Wisconsin, and Iowa, but that just matches their previous surveys. If they're right about Florida, they only have to be wrong about any one of the others.
http://www.reuters.com/newsArticle.jhtml?type=politicsNews&storyID=6666947§ion=news
Most significantly, 56% thought the world would be safer if Kerry is elected president, while only 24% thought it would be safer if Bush is returned.
And a whopping 74% thought it was bad for Britain that Blair backed Bush in Iraq.
Bush and his policy may have received the reluctant backing of the British government, but he and they get the thumbs down from the British people.
http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,137163,00.html
The poll was conducted Thursday and Friday evening, so as they point out half of those surveyed would have been responding after the OBL video broke. Since the previous poll was conducted a day earlier, on Wednesday and Thursday evening, it doesn't look like there's any immediate bounce for Bush. The reverse, if anything.
Let's hope this is confirmed in the tracking polls tomorrow.
47% is Bush's lowest score since the numbers moved to "with leaners", and the news item indicates that Kerry "had a good day" yesterday.
If you compare the PA poll with the one a week previously showing Kerry 5 ahead, you will find some odd things going on in the internals. Most notably, in the breakdown of Registered Voters, in which Kerry still leads 45-44 versus 47-41 a week earlier, you'll find the following breakdown for Kerry by party allegiance.
Total Repub Dem Ind
Today 45 10 80 48
Week Ago 47 10 79 49
The only way Kerry can have lost 2% when he has a near identical breakdown by party allegiance is if the sample for the new poll has shifted to the right. Bush has improved a little, but would only have been about 43-47 if the same party breakdown had been used as last time. Maybe, though, they got it right this time and wrong last time? This looks unlikely, given another helpful line they give, breaking it down by whether someone voted for Gore or Bush last time round. The figures are:
%Gore (now/week ago) %Bush 2000(now/w.ago)
Kerry 88/84 10/13
Bush 7/7 80/78
In other words, in BOTH polls Kerry is retaining a higher percentage of Gore voters than Bush is of his 2000 voters, and also winning over more of the other side's 2000 voters. On this basis, you would anticipate Kerry at least holding on to Gore's 4% lead.
In Florida there's no sign of a weighted sample, but comparing this poll with previous ones shows a trend in Kerry's favour among Registered Voters.
Kerry is now 44-44, whereas a week ago he was 43-45 and 42-46 at the start of the month. He has also noticeably strengthened his position among independents (now leading 49-32 versus 43-39 a week ago). Perhaps most important of all, Kerry leads 56-39 among those who have already voted. I'll take this over pollsters' projections of "likely voters" any day!
· WI-08: Wingnut plans to run as "conservative independent" (desmoinesdem)
· 50 percent of southerners say Obama better president than Bush (desmoinesdem)
· What Yesterday Says About Young Voters (Mike Connery)
· Max Blumenthal on the dysfunctional movement driving the GOP (Mike Connery)
· IA-Gov: Culver launches second tv ad (desmoinesdem)
· Hilarious Vid On Why We Must Vote No On Issue 2!! (Cliff Schecter)
· NY-23: Scozzafava Drops Out! (lipris)
· NY-23: Pataki Goes Rogue, Endorses Teabagger Darling Doug Hoffman (lipris)
· Dunne Considering Run For VT-Gov (Nathan Empsall)
· McGovern Grandson Looks to Challenge Thune in 2010 (Jonathan Singer)
· IA-03: Two potential challengers for Boswell (desmoinesdem)
· NJ-Gov: Daggett Goes After Christie and Corzine (Jonathan Singer)
